National Championship 2020 Predictions & Expert Picks

When the college football season began, it looked like it would be just another year for the Clemson Tigers. They were one of the national championship favorites, and everyone expected them to win the ACC yet again.
Sure, having Notre Dame in the conference this season might throw a wrench in the plan— but they did. The Fighting Irish took down the Tigers earlier this season. If they can do so again this weekend in the ACC Championship game, they will stop Clemson’s ACC title streak at five.
More importantly, they will likely knock the Tigers out of the college football playoffs.
It is not going to be any easier to do the second time around, though. Last time, the Tigers were without their superstar quarterback, Trevor Lawrence due to COVID-19 protocols. D.J. Uiagalelei did a great job in his place, which has led many to believe Lawrence will do even better this time.
But he might not.
The game is likely going to be a close one once again. That makes the ten-point spread in favor of Clemson appear to be a bit generous. Then again, oddsmakers set the spread how they do for a reason. So, do you take the points or not?
Do you take Notre Dame and the points or roll with Clemson Maybe what you need to do instead is check out the following prop bets for the game. It may be a little easier to decide on some of them.

Clemson Team Total Prop

Over 35.5 (-110) Under 35.5 (-125)
Clemson has been averaging over 46 points a game this season, making it seem like taking the over is a no-brainer. But the Notre Dame defense is strong. Maybe they can slow the Tigers down this time? Eh—do not bank on it.
This game will be a lot like the one earlier this season—high scoring and a ton of fun to watch. With Trevor Lawrence behind center for Clemson it would be shocking if the Tigers scored less than 35.5 points in this game. Take the over.
Clemson OVER 35.5 points (-110)

Notre Dame Team Total Prop

Over 24.5 (EVEN) Under 24.5 (-130)
The last time these two teams played, Notre Dame rolled up over 500 yards of total offense and 47 points. Their season average has been 37.7 points/game. With people healthy and rested, it is almost hard to see them only scoring 24 points in this game.
But last time, Clemson was missing a few defenders. Was their absence why Notre Dame s offense played so well? Maybe—but the Notre Dame offense is pretty good as well.
Clemson s defense being at full strength may slow Notre Dame down some, but the Tigers will not hold them to 24 points. Take the over.
Notre Dame OVER 24.5 points (EVEN)

Clemson – Notre Dame Margin of Victory

Clemson By 1-6 Points (+425){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 1-6 Points (+650)
Clemson By 7-12 Points (+425){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 7-12 Points (+1200)
Clemson By 13-18 Points (+425){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 13-18 Points (+2200)
Clemson By 19-24 Points (+600){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 19-24 Points (+4000)
Clemson By 25-30 Points (+900){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 25-30 Points (+6600)
Clemson By 31-36 Points (+1200){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 31-36 Points (+10000)
Clemson By 37-42 Points (+2000){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 37-42 Points (+10000)
Clemson By 43 Or More Points (+2000){{ch-0} Notre Dame By 43 Or More Points (+12500)
No one is getting blown out in this game, so cross all those winning margins off the list. More than likely, the score is going to be high like it was last time and close. But the question is whether the final margin will be more or less than a touchdown.
It is not hard to imagine it going either way.
Now, the Clemson faithful will disagree and say the winning margin will be ‘Clemson by 13-18 points.’ It will either be that or take either team to win by 1-6 points.
Clemson by 1-6 points (+425)

Clemson – Notre Dame Points Range

Between 0 And 20 (+8000) Between 21 And 30 (+3500) Between 31 And 40 (+1200) Between 41 And 50 (+500) Between 51 And 60 (+260) Between 61 And 70 (+285) 71 And Over (+295)
The first game between the two saw the final score fall under the 71 and over option. If both teams score their season averages, that is where it would fall this time, too. With Trevor Lawrence playing this time, there is little doubt Clemson will struggle to put up points.
With how Notre Dame carved up the Clemson defense the first time, there is no reason to think they will no do well this time. The score for this game will easily get into the 60s, but it would not be shocking to see it get into the 70s or higher this time, too.
Take either ’between 61-70’ or 71 and over.
Best Bet: Between 61-70 points (+285)

Clemson – Notre Dame Race To 35 Points

Notre Dame (+1200){{ch-0} Clemson (-140) Neither (+135)
Both teams have excellent offenses, but they also have good defenses. That makes it seem like neither team may reach 35 points. Trevor Lawrence does give Clemson an understandable edge for this bet. But Ian Book and the Notre Dame offense is no joke, either.
Someone, if not both teams, will score 35 points in this game. If you want to play it safe, take Clemson But if you are willing to take on the risk for a nice reward, take Notre Dame
Clemson (-140)

OddsUSA Top Five Prop Bets For The SEC Championship Game

[OC] Owning up to a bet: THE TEN BEST ORANGE UNIFORMS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

What’s up, everybody! Welcome back to some uniform-based OC here on /CFB. After losing a national championship bet to destinybond, I’m here to rank the ten best orange-based uniforms in all of college football.
The rules are simple and as follows:
1) Only teams who have worn orange jerseys in the past year were considered. This eliminated teams like Virginia Tech who, while they have consistently dope uniforms, evidently don’t consider orange to be a strong enough piece of their color palette to wear in a primary capacity.
and
2) All evaluations are done almost completely on the quality of the orange uniform parts. Sometimes the quality of the white parts will weigh on the evaluations if they are worn commonly with the orange uniforms, but otherwise, that’s the extent of what I’m evaluating here.
ON TO THE LIST!
10) Oregon State Ball Oregon State University Beavers
Shade of Orange: Pantone 1665 / HEX #C34500
Uniforms: Home / Away
To start off our countdown, we have Oregon State, who boasts one of the most common shades of orange in the nation. The Beavers’ orange parts are okay for the most part, but their black jerseys are honestly much better than their orange ones. I’m not sure about the finish on the helmet, and I question the use of black numbers on the orange jerseys. The sleeve cap design is actually rather interesting, but overall, these orange uniforms are just okay. The orange-based road variants are far better, honestly. The weird finish on the helmets is less noticeable when paired with the white jerseys.
Overall, I like this set as a whole, but I like the black uniform parts way more than the orange ones.
9) Princeton Ball Princeton University Tigers
Shade of Orange: Pantone 158 / HEX #EE7F2D
Uniforms: Home / Away
These are shockingly dope! I really like the striped sleeve caps, and the stripes on the black compression undershirts are an excellent little touch. The old school helmets, by the way, look so cool in the colors. I like them a lot. I have a few reservations, though. The front of the jersey feels really empty without a word mark across the chest, and I’m not super sold on the black numbers. I feel like the readability on those numbers has to be really bad, right? And the white pants weirdly don’t fit this set at all, which is kind of a problem for me, as Princeton’s loud shade of orange is A LOT when they wear all orange.
Don’t get me wrong, though. This is a BOMB ASS uniform set. It’s easily one of the very best in the FCS, orange or otherwise. It’s just that it needs a few tweaks in order to really shine. Overall, though, I’m a big fan.
8) Florida Ball University of Florida Gators
Shade of Orange: Pantone 172 / HEX #FA4616
Uniforms: Home / Away
I’ll be upfront when I say that Florida needs to wear their orange pants like 9 games out of the year. THEY’RE SO GOOD. They’re so much fun, and I think they go incredibly well with UF’s orange helmets, which in and of themselves are a top-30 primary helmet in the country. The all-orange look Florida rolls out from time to time is a little weird, though (it might just be because I’m so used to the blue jerseys at this point), and the Gator patch on the front of the jerseys looks really out of place. Orange/white/orange is a fantastic look, though.
I could have put Florida at any of the next six spots, honestly, but I pulled them down just a bit for two reasons. One, they don’t utilize these pieces anywhere near enough, and two, I’m less of a fan of the all-orange look than I am of many of the looks the above teams have. I really like this set, though.
7) Syracuse Ball University of Syracuse Orange
Shade of Orange: Pantone 1665 / HEX #D44500
Uniforms: Home / Away
These uniforms take an unnecessary amount of flack. Nike’s playing with a lot of really interesting ideas here! The gradient design on the shoulders and pants are legitimately fascinating, and even though a gradient hasn’t been stylish since 1993, this comes really close. Points for trying! I love these orange helmets for Syracuse, and while people shit on this number font, I… actually kind of like it. I’m kind of a sicko like that.
Overall, while I certainly believe that these aren’t perfect, I give them massive props for trying to be creative. And a bunch of these ideas are legitimately cool! Just don’t wear the grey uniforms. Those are fucking terrible, guys.
6) Illinois Ball University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Fighting Illini
Shade of Orange: Pantone 166 / HEX #FA6300
Uniforms: Home / Away
Released the same offseason as Syracuse’s set, Illinois’ uniform set is honestly one of my favorite modern sets in the entire country. The navy accents on these are beautiful, and all of Illinois’ helmets are gorgeous. The stripes on the sleeves are super dope, and the interesting finish on the helmet is pretty cool, all told.
To be honest, these are actually really cool and it sucks that I could only justify putting them at number 6 on this list. No real complaints from me.
5) Oklahoma State Ball Oklahoma State University Cowboys
Shade of Orange: Pantone 166 / HEX #FF6600
Uniforms: Home / Away
OSU just edges out Illinois for this spot because of how many risks they took with this new uniform set. New for 2016, I was skeptical that Oklahoma State would be able to pull off these extremely intricate and futuristic duds, but after the season, I’ve realized that I kind of love them. The paisley pattern on the collar and sleeves is fascinating, and they use chrome in such an effective way throughout this set. My only concern is that the orange helmets and jerseys are some of the weaker pieces out of the whole set. That certainly doesn’t make them bad, of course; I just think the black OSU pieces are even better.
One of the (if not THE) most imaginative and creative uniforms in the country, Oklahoma State really outdid themselves with this set.
4) Texas Ball University of Texas at Austin Longhorns
Shade of Orange: Pantone 159 / HEX #BF5700
Uniforms: Home / Away
These top four are here because they have an aura and a history to them that help put them above the more modern sets farther up this list.
Texas has fucking great uniforms. I know a lot of people don’t like burnt orange, but give UT the credit where credit is due; it was a masterstroke for Texas to relegate the burnt orange to more of an accent color and make white the central tone for this set. Think about it, Texas uses almost as little color on their uniforms as you can while still meeting NCAA protocol. No helmet stripe, no pants stripe, only two little orange stripes on the jersey… this one is pretty minimalist, all things considered. But that the same time, the white is so pure and big and powerful that it’s honestly really striking.
These are some damn good uniforms. I will fight anyone who says otherwise.
3) Clemson Ball Clemson University Tigers
Shade of Orange: Pantone 1595 / HEX #F66733
Uniforms: Home / Away
Clemson is my least favorite sporting establishment. I hate them even more than Arsenal, Chelsea, the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Heat, Tennessee Titans… seriously. Fuck them.
But goddammit do they look good.
Clemson tweaked their jerseys during the 2016 offseason, moving the tiger paw logos from the sleeve caps to the shoulders of the jerseys. I’m not a huge fan of this variation on the orange jerseys, but I think it’s a killer look on the white jerseys. Seriously, guys, that Orange/White/Orange they famously wore against Bama in the championship is one of the five or two best individual uniforms in this sport. The all-orange look is pretty aggressive, but overall, I can’t find many issues with these uniforms.
I’m legitimately upset by how highly I’m ranking them right now.
2) Tennessee Ball University of Tennessee Volunteers
Shade of Orange: Pantone 151 / HEX #FF8200
Uniforms: Home / Away
A lot of people shit on Tennessee’s shade of orange, but I honestly think that it’s one of the better shades in the country. You can fight me over that, too.
I LOVE the checkerboard accents on these uniforms. They’re so subtle but still so noticeable and I just love these uniforms, don’t @ me.
1) Miami Ball University of Miami Hurricanes
Shade of Orange: Pantone 1665 / HEX #f47321
Uniforms: Home / Away
These are it. Don’t fight it. You know that Miami’s retro uniform set is the hands-down best set of orange-based uniforms in college football.
I’m not gonna even argue with you. The stripes on the jerseys are perfect, the helmets are simple but incredibly effective, and the orange pants on the road uniform are absolutely flawless, especially because the green numbers with orange outlines on the white jersey balance flawlessly with the pants.
These uniforms are awesome. And the best orange uniforms in college football.

JaguarGator9's Weird Stat Thread- Super Bowl Edition

After weeks of weird stats, it’s now time for the grand finale of the season. Of course, I’m talking about the Super Bowl. First off, I’m not sure what I’m going to be doing with this series after the Super Bowl with regards to the offseason; I’ll definitely have one of these threads for the NFL Draft, but with everything else, I’m not sure. I’ll come up with something, though- I want to keep producing this content in the offseason the same way that I do in the regular season, because it helps me get through those six dark months (and if it helps you guys too, then great).
We’re going to divide this one up into a few different categories. Part I is going to be between the Broncos and the Panthers. Part II is going to be some weird stats from Super Bowl history. And, part III is the grand finale. It’s the big kahuna. It’s the part that I’ve been holding from you guys for a very long time. It’s the weirdest stat not just that I’ve ever come up with, but quite possibly, of all-time (sounds like an exaggeration now, but when you see it, you’ll see what I mean). I’ll explain how you can relate the halftime show to how good or bad the game turns out to be. But, we’re saving that for a bit. Let’s start off this thread with the Broncos/Panthers history.
Part I- Broncos vs. Panthers

The Broncos and the Panthers have played each other four times- twice at each city. However, due to a weird scheduling quirk, the Broncos played their first 2 games against the Panthers in Denver, and the Panthers played their next 2 games against the Broncos in Charlotte. The teams met in 1997 (Denver), 2004 (Denver), 2008 (Charlotte) and 2012 (Charlotte).
Each game between the Panthers and Broncos has had a different leading rusher for each team.

Year	Broncos Leading Rusher	Panthers Leading Rusher
1997	Terrell Davis	Fred Lane
2004	Reuben Droughns	Nick Goings
2008	PJ Pope	DeAngelo Williams
2012	Willis McGahee	Jonathan Stewart

This shouldn’t come as entirely surprising, but the QB that has thrown for the most passing yards in every game between the Broncos and the Panthers has won

Year	Broncos Passing Yards	Panthers Passing Yards	Winner
1997	233	113	Broncos
2004	224	163	Broncos
2008	158	253	Panthers
2012	295	198	Broncos

Every single year that the Broncos and Panthers have met, the previous year’s R&B #1 single had a three-word title

Year	Previous Year’s #1 R&B Single
1997	Let It Flow (released as a double-A side with another Toni Braxton song)
2004	In Da Club
2008	Lost Without U
2012	Love on Top
2016	See You Again

The Panthers have won a playoff game in five separate seasons. All five seasons, the Denver Broncos were in the playoffs that same season.
When the last Christmas #1 single in the United Kingdom was recorded by a solo male artist, the Panthers have won every meeting against the Broncos. When it was recorded by either multiple artists or a female artist, the Broncos have won.

Year	Previous Year’s #1 Christmas Single	Artist	Winner
1997	2 Become 1	Spice Girls	Denver
2004	Mad World	Michael Andrews & Gary Jules	Denver
2008	When You Believe	Leon Jackson	Carolina
2012	Wherever You Are	Military Wives & Gareth Malone	Denver

The last #1 Christmas single in the UK was “A Bridge over You” by the Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Choir, which consists of both males and females. Advantage to the Broncos here.

Here’s the strangest one of them all: This is the fifth meeting between the Broncos and the Panthers. Every single time that they’ve met, the New England Patriots were involved in the previous year’s Super Bowl.

Year	Last Super Bowl Played	Was New England There?
1997	XXXI	Yes
2004	XXXVIII	Yes
2008	XLII	Yes
2012	XLVI	Yes
2016	XLIX	Yes

This is the third time that the Broncos have ever played an opponent exactly four times before playing them the fifth time in the Super Bowl, as they played both the New York Giants and Washington beforehand four times before meeting up in Super Bowls XXI and XXII, respectively. Oddly enough, both of those games were held in California. Denver lost both. Super Bowl 50 is being held in California.
The Panthers have played the Broncos four times. The Panthers are 0-3 when they do not attempt a field goal or when they do not hit 100% of their field goals. Their lone win came when they were perfect on field goal attempts.
All five times that the Panthers and Broncos have now met, the previous year’s Super Bowl was held in a facility that either has a retractable roof or a dome.

Year	Last Super Bowl Played	Facility
1997	XXXI	Louisiana Superdome
2004	XXXVIII	Reliant Stadium
2008	XLII	University of Phoenix Stadium
2012	XLVI	Lucas Oil Stadium
2016	XLIX	University of Phoenix Stadium

Every time that the Jaguars finish a season 5-11, the Broncos and Panthers play each other the following yeaafter the Jags season is done.

Year	Jags Record	Did They Meet?
2004	5-11 (2003)	Yes
2012	5-11 (2011)	Yes
2016	5-11 (2015)	Yes

Seeing as these two teams will meet again next regular season, this trend will continue.

When the most recent champion of The Masters is American, the Broncos have never lost to the Panthers. When the most recent champion of The Masters is not American, the Panthers have never lost to the Broncos

Year	Masters Champion	Nationality	Winner
1997	Tiger Woods	USA	Denver
2004	Phil Michelson	USA	Denver
2008	Trevor Immelman	South Africa	Carolina
2012	Bubba Watson	USA	Denver

For the record, the most recent champion of The Masters was Jordan Speith, an American. Advantage to the Broncos here.

When the most recent Champions League final is held between two teams from different nations, Denver has never lost to Carolina. When the most recent Champions League final is being held between two teams from the same country, Carolina has never lost to Denver

Year	Champions League teams	Countries Involved	Winner
1997	Borussia Dortmund & Juventus	Germany/Italy	Denver
2004	FC Porto & AS Monaco	Portugal/Monaco	Denver
2008	Manchester United & Chelsea	England	Carolina
2012	Chelsea & Bayern Munich	England/Germany	Denver

The most recent Champions League final was held between FC Barcelona (Spain) and Juventus (Italy), so once again, advantage to the Broncos here.

And finally for part I, when the band Chicago releases an album of new material, the Panthers have never lost to the Broncos. When Chicago either releases an album of old material or does not release an album in the same year as the game, the Broncos have never lost.

Year	Did Chicago Release a Studio Album?	Winner
1997	No (The Heart of Chicago- 1967-1997 was not a studio album)	Denver
2004	No	Denver
2008	Yes (Chicago XXXII: Stone of Sisyphus)	Carolina
2012	No	Denver

Chicago has not released an album in the first month of 2016. Advantage to the Broncos here, once again.
Part II- Super Bowl History

This is Carolina’s second Super Bowl appearance. They made it to Super Bowl XXXVIII in the 2003 season. That year, they opened up the season with a week 1 victory against Jacksonville. This season, the Panthers opened up with a week 1 victory against Jacksonville.
This is Denver’s eighth appearance in the Super Bowl. Half of the time, Denver’s appearance in the Super Bowl was the first time that the venue was hosting the game. It happened at Super Bowl XII (Superdome), Super Bowl XXII (Jack Murphy Stadium), and Super Bowl XLVIII (MetLife Stadium), and will happen this year. Denver lost all three times.
The average margin of victory of Super Bowls played in California is 19.6 points. They’ve been blowouts; only 2 of the 11 games were decided by single digit points.
From Super Bowl XXXIX to Super Bowl XLVII, there was a way to predict who was going to win the Super Bowl with 100% accuracy, purely by judging the entrance songs by each team. It alternated every year between the older song and the newer song. Basically, whichever team had the older walkout song every other year would win, and whichever team had the newer walkout song every other year would win

Super Bowl	Winner	Entrance Song	Year	Loser	Entrance Song	Year	Old or New?
XXXIX	NE	Crazy Train	1980	PHI	Thunderstruck	1990	Old
XL	PIT	Right Here, Right Now	1999	SEA	Bittersweet Symphony	1998	New
XLI	IND	Won’t Get Fooled Again	1971	CHI	Ladies and Gentlemen	2006	Old
XLII	NYG	Stronger	2007	NE	Crazy Train	1980	New
XLIII	PIT	Right Here, Right Now	1999	ARZ	Ignition	2007	Old
XLIV	NO	Sirius	1982	IND	Won’t Get Fooled Again	1971	New
XLV	GB	Get Ready for This	1991	PIT	Right Here, Right Now	1999	Old
XLVI	NYG	Written in the Stars	2010	NE	Crazy Train	1980	New
XLVII	BAL	Where the Streets Have No Name	1987	SF	California Love	1995	Old

This worked with 100% accuracy up until Super Bowl XLVIII. Keep in mind that Super Bowl XXXIX was the earliest video that I could find of entrance songs, and prior to Super Bowl XXXVIII, teams got introduced as individual players, and not as teams

There has never been a punt return for a touchdown in the history of the Super Bowl
Only one player has ever been ejected from a Super Bowl- Bruce Irvin from Super Bowl XLIX at the end of the game
If the weird stats hold up, then this Super Bowl is going to stink. I’m not just talking about the California stat- there are plenty of other stats to back this up as well, like this one about attendance. When the attendance of a Super Bowl reaches a certain range, it can result in a blowout.

Attendance at the Super Bowl	Super Bowls to Fit This Criteria	Margin of Victory
70,000 or less	I, XXVI, XXXII, XXXVII, XL	14.5 pts
70,000-72,000	VIII, XXXV, XXXVIII, XLII, XLIII, XLVII, XLIX	8.71 pts
72,000-73,000	XVIII, XXIV, XXVIII, XXXI, XXXIV, XXXVI	20.83 pts
73,000-75,000	XX, XXII, XXV, XXXIII, XXXIX, XLI, XLIV	19 pts
75,000-77,000	II, III, XII, XV, XXIII, XXX	12.66 pts
77,000-81,000	IV, V, IX, X, XIII, XXXIX	6.66 pts
81,000-100,000	VI, VII, XVI, XIX, XXVII, XLVIII	21.4 pts
100,000 or more	XI, XIV, XXI, XXVII, XLV	13 pts

Levi’s Stadium can be expanded to approximately 75,000 seats, so we’re either getting a Super Bowl in that 20.83 pts range or in that 19 pts range. Not good.

The average margin of victory for Super Bowls that end in the number 0 (ex: X, XX, XXX, XL) is 15.25 points.
If you’re doing your prop bets and are betting on a team to win the coin toss, put your money on the Panthers. This is the result of the last 11 coin tosses that did not take place in a dome, and took place in an outdoor venue.

Super Bowl	Team that won the toss	Result of the flip	Venue
XXIX	49ers	Heads	Joe Robbie Stadium
XXX	Cowboys	Tails	Sun Devil Stadium
XXXII	Packers	Tails	Qualcomm Stadium
XXXIII	Falcons	Tails	Pro Player Stadium
XXXV	Giants	Tails	Raymond James Stadium
XXXVII	Buccaneers	Tails	Qualcomm Stadium
XXXIX	Eagles	Tails	Alltel Stadium
XLI	Bears	Heads	Dolphin Stadium
XLIII	Cardinals	Heads	Raymond James Stadium
XLIV	Saints	Heads	Sun Life Stadium
XLVIII	Seahawks	Tails	MetLife Stadium

Notice a theme here? The last 11 coin tosses that took place in outdoor venues were won by the NFC team. The last time that an AFC team won the coin toss outdoors was all the way back at Super Bowl XXVII, when the Bills won the toss. The last time that an AFC team won the coin toss outdoors AND won the Super Bowl was Super Bowl XVIII, when the Los Angeles Raiders did it.

This is the fourteenth Super Bowl to take place between two teams playing in cities that have never won the World Series; the most recent one was Super Bowl XLVIII between the Broncos and the Seahawks. The average margin of victory in these games is 19.14 points, with only two games (Super Bowls VII and XXXII) being decided by single digits
Does winning the conference championship game by a significant amount of points matter? Surprisingly enough, it actually favors those that played closer games. Since the turn of the millennium in 2000, teams that have worse margins of victory in the conference championship are 9-5 in Super Bowls.

Super Bowl	AFC Champion	Margin of Victory	NFC Champion	Margin of Victory	Winner
XXXIV	Titans	19	Rams	5	Worse
XXXV	Ravens	13	Giants	41	Worse
XXXVI	Patriots	7	Rams	5	Greater
XXXVII	Raiders	17	Buccaneers	17	N/A
XXXVIII	Patriots	10	Panthers	11	Worse
XXXIX	Patriots	14	Eagles	17	Worse
XL	Steelers	17	Seahawks	20	Worse
XLI	Colts	4	Bears	25	Worse
XLII	Patriots	9	Giants	3	Worse
XLIII	Steelers	9	Cardinals	7	Greater
XLIV	Colts	13	Saints	3	Worse
XLV	Steelers	5	Packers	7	Greater
XLVI	Patriots	3	Giants	3	N/A
XLVII	Ravens	15	49ers	4	Greater
XLVIII	Broncos	10	Seahawks	6	Worse
XLIX	Patriots	38	Seahawks	6	Greater

The Broncos won the AFC Championship this year by 2 points. The Panthers won the NFC Championship by 34 points. The stats favor the Broncos, especially when considering the fact that teams that win the conference championship by more than 17 points since the turn of the millennium are 1-4 in the Super Bowl.

When Alabama is the defending champion of college football, the average margin of victory in the following Super Bowl is 13 points.
The last time that a team won the Super Bowl in the same stadium of a team in their division was when the Denver Broncos won Super Bowl XXXII at Qualcomm Stadium. Since then, including this year, teams are 0-for-19 (since Super Bowl XLVIII counts twice due to the Jets and Giants).
There have been two Super Bowls played in precipitation- Super Bowl XLI and Super Bowl XLVIII (parts of the game had a light drizzle). Both games involved Peyton Manning.
When the Chicago Blackhawks made the Stanley Cup, the average margin of victory in the following Super Bowl is 22.8 points. The Chicago Blackhawks are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Year of Stanley Cup Victory	Next Super Bowl	Margin of Victory
1971	VI	21
1973	VIII	17
1992	XXVII	35
2010	XLV	6
2013	XLVIII	35

And finally, having the Mets in the World Series is not a good sign for the upcoming Super Bowl. The Mets have made the World Series four times, excluding the 2015 season. The average margin of victory in the Super Bowls following that was 19.75 points. Remember that the Mets made the World Series in 2015.

Year of World Series Appearance	Next Super Bowl	Margin of Victory
1969	IV	16
1973	VIII	17
1986	XXI	19
2000	XXXV	27

Part III- The Weirdest Stat of All
Well, this is the moment you’ve all been waiting for. I’ve been holding off this stat for a long time; I think I’ve been holding this one off ever since I started the Weird Stat Thread. This is the big one, and it’s one that I’ve had in my back pocket for a very long time. By a very long time, I’m talking about the fact that I’ve been keeping this stat since December of 2013. However, because it’s very hard to explain verbally (and you’ll see why), and because I’ve never had a platform like this before, I’ve never been able to share it to the world.
Now is the time. After more than two years of waiting and refining the stat, it’s finally time to reveal it. It doesn’t tell you who will win the Super Bowl, but it can tell you how good or bad the Super Bowl will be. You can tell how good or bad the show is going to be simply by the halftime show. Keep in mind that this is not a stat based on opinion; I’m not saying that if the halftime show is good, then the Super Bowl will be good, or vice versa. This is a stat based off of numbers, and strange numbers at that. Let’s break this stat down into parts.
History of the Halftime Show
I’m not going to dive too much into the history of the show, because I’ve done that for an entire series. If you want to check that out, then here’s the link to the most recent one on the Katy Perry halftime show. I bring this up because it’s important in our understanding of the stat, and in terms of when the cut-off date is going to be. Most of the Super Bowls prior to Super Bowl XXV featured marching bands, Disney performances, or really bad magic tricks. However, from Super Bowl XXV-on, each halftime show featured at least one artist. That doesn’t mean that the shows were good; I still think that the Super Bowl XXV halftime show is the worst of all-time. However, from Super Bowl XXV-on, there was at least one recognizable name in each halftime show. For this reason, our cut-off date is Super Bowl XXV.
The Stat and the Guidelines
How the stat works is incredibly confusing and took a very long time to figure out, but let’s see if you can follow along with me on this one. Here’s the simple form of it:

Take the first singer that performs in the halftime show (ex: Katy Perry was the first performer in Super Bowl XLIX, not Lenny Kravitz or Missy Elliott). Now, take the longest song that the artist has ever recorded in their lifetime up until that point. By knowing the length of that song, you can determine how good or bad the Super Bowl is going to be

Sounds confusing? In more broken down terms, we’re taking the first artist that is performing at the halftime show. After taking that artist, we’re looking at their entire discography and picking out the longest song that this artist has. If that song is a certain length, the game will be good; if it’s not, then the game will be bad. However, for this stat to work, we need some qualifiers.

Live songs count, so long as those songs came off of a live album. I’m not counting YouTube performances; they have to be off of an album off of Spotify
Songs performed in a language other than English do not count
Remixes do not count, even if these remixes were released on an album
Christmas songs or holiday singles do not count
By first artist, I’m talking about the first singer. As an example, at Super Bowl XXXIII, we’re using Stevie Wonder, not Big Bad Voodoo Daddy
If the artist performed the song as a part of a group, it counts (ex: Paul McCartney’s work with The Beatles counts in this stat)

Now that we’ve got the guidelines down, it’s time to look at the songs.
The Table

Super Bowl	First Artist	Longest Song	Song Length	Margin of Victory
XXV	New Kids on the Block	My Favorite Girl	5:28	1
XXVI	Gloria Estefan	Here We Are	4:50	13
XXVII	Michael Jackson	Will You Be There	7:40	35
XXVIII	Clint Black	We Tell Ourselves	4:39	17
XXIX	Patti LaBelle	Music Is My Way of Life	8:12	23
XXX	Diana Ross	Love Hangover	7:48	10
XXXI	Blues Brothers	Sweet Home Chicago	7:53	14
XXXII	The Temptations	Papa Was a Rolling Stone	6:52	7
XXXIII	Stevie Wonder	Another Star	8:29	15
XXXIV	Christina Aguilera	Somebody’s Somebody	5:03	7
XXXV	*NSYNC	That’s When I’ll Stop Loving You	4:52	27
XXXVI	U2	Lemon	6:59	3
XXXVII	Shania Twain	From This Moment On	4:52	27
XXXVIII	Janet Jackson	Any Time, Any Place	7:09	3
XXXIX	Paul McCartney	Hey Jude	7:11	3
XL	The Rolling Stones	Miss You	8:36	11
XLI	Prince	Purple Rain	8:43	12
XLII	Tom Petty and The Heartbreakers	House in the Woods	5:32	3
XLIII	Bruce Springsteen	Jungleland	9:36	4
XLIV	The Who	Won’t Get Fooled Again	8:34	14
XLV	The Black Eyed Peas	They Don’t Want Music	6:47	6
XLVI	Madonna	Physical Attraction	6:40	4
XLVII	Beyonce	Dance for You	6:18	3
XLVIII	Bruno Mars	It Will Rain	4:18	35
XLIX	Katy Perry	Lost	4:59	4

Analysis of the Table
Let’s take a look at the longest song lengths, because right now, this is just a bunch of numbers. However, when you look at it more closely, these numbers are heavily related.

Longest Song Length	Occurrences	Games Decided by Single Digits	Average Margin of Victory
Less than 4:55	5	0	23.8 points
4:55-7:11	11	11	3.7 points
Greater than 7:11	9	1	15.33 points

If the longest song by the first halftime show artist fits the range of 4:55-7:11, then expect the game to be really good. If it doesn’t… expect a blowout, or, at the very least, a 2-possession game. The only one that didn’t fit the 4:55-7:11 range and ended up being a single digit game was Super Bowl XLIII. Every other game was decided by double digits. Want to know why you had a string of good Super Bowls in a row, and then, you had a blowout at Super Bowl XLVIII? Blame Bruno Mars for that.
What Does This Mean for Coldplay?
The odds are likely that Coldplay will be the first performer at the Super Bowl 50 halftime show, since they are the headlining act. What’s the longest song in their discography that comes off of a studio album? Unfortunately for us, Coldplay released a live album in 2003 called Live 2003 (original name, I know), and one of the songs on that album is “Everything’s Not Lost.” This song clocks in at 8:48, which fits in the “Greater than 7:11” range. Remember that in the 9 occurrences of this, only once has the game finished in single digits, and the average margin of victory is more than two touchdowns.
Conclusion
Based on that stat, expect a really bad Super Bowl, unfortunately. Hopefully, it’s not the case; I’d much rather be entertained for another Super Bowl than to have my weird stat be correct and watch another blowout. That being said, the numbers have held true for more than 25 years. This isn’t good for Super Bowl 50. One way or the other, you may be looking at a blowout.

[Rookie] Early Bowl Game Previews, Part II

Last week I shared Part I of my college bowl game previews. I think that watching these bowl games is a great way to start your rookie draft research if you have not already started. So, I wanted to share my opinions and research with all of you here on the sub to help point out some players and storylines that you should watch. I write freelance covering college and the draft for Reality Sports Online; I am not trying to drive clicks to my posted work so I purposefully left out links that point to any of my articles.

FRIDAY, DEC. 22
BAHAMAS BOWL, UAB (8-4) VS. OHIO (8-4), 12:30 P.M. (ESPN)

UAB: 67th scoring offense, 106th passing offense, 37th rushing offense; 46th scoring defense, 22nd passing defense, 72nd rushing defense
Ohio: 14th scoring offense, 94th passing offense, 17th rushing offense; 59th scoring defense, 109th passing defense, 10th rushing defense

The offensive/defensive rankings in this one make for an interesting matchup. Neither team throws the ball well but both run the ball with aplomb (UAB averages 190 yards per game while Ohio averages 245). When UAB is running the ball it’ll be strength against strength with the Ohio rush defense. Ohio’s offense is led by the two-pronged ground attack of JUCO transfer QB Nathan Rourke and RB AJ Ouellette. Rourke has an incredible amount of rushing touchdowns: 21. That is 2nd overall in the FBS – not among QBs, among all players. It’s four more than Lamar Jackson has. Ouellette is injured and his status for the bowl is unknown. He finished 5th in the MAC in rushing but durability is a concern as I pointed out back in Week 10 before his most recent injury. Backup RB Dorian Brown is also questionable so the bulk of the carries may have to go to undersized freshman Julian Ross (who went 19-81 against Buffalo in the team’s last game).
UAB also has their own mobile QB, AJ Erdely, who transferred from Middle Tennessee State. Eredely’s rushing stats pale in comparison to Rourke, but he completes more passes (61.8% vs 54.2%) and has a better TD:INT ratio. UAB’s lead back is freshman Spencer Brown (1,292 yards, 10 TDs). It’s worth noting that this is UAB’s first season back in the FBS after ending their football program in 2014. Bill Clark is a name that nobody knows but that should be getting national recognition. He has done a fantastic job getting UAB to just its second ever bowl while also setting the school record for wins in a season since joining the FBS in 1996.
I’m really torn on this one. As much as I’d love to root for a UAB bowl victory, which would have been improbable in September, the Bahamas Bowl will come down to the health of Ohio’s running backs and whether their rush defense can slow down Brown. I’ll guess that one of the injured Ohio backs can play and that UAB won’t be able to slow down the tandem with Nathan Rourke. Prediction: Ohio

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL, CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4) VS. WYOMING (7-5), 4 P.M. (ESPN)

Central Michigan: 54th scoring offense, 48th passing offense, 93rd rushing offense; 68th scoring defense, 23rd passing defense, 91st rushing defense
Wyoming: 108th scoring offense, 101st passing offense, 120th rushing offense; 13th scoring defense, 5th passing defense, 74th rushing defense

This is an odd game to break down. When I first saw that Wyoming ended bowl eligible and was picked for a game, I figured I would have to go deep on QB Josh Allen but I find myself more excited by the Chippewas. Allen, as you probably know, is a first round NFL Draft prospect who struggled mightily this season before hurting his shoulder. That 101st ranking for the Cowboys’ passing offense is not a typo – they were that bad. Honestly, the shoulder injury might have done more to help his draft stock rather than hurt it. Before going down, Allen was averaging just 165.8 yards per game with a disappointing 56.2% completion percentage. His passer rating was 124.0 (ranked 97th in the FBS). Allen’s yards per pass also decreased about 25% from last season. So, if the stats are so bad, why is Allen still considered a first round draft prospect? Because he can do things like this. That play is loaded with positives if you watch closely. First off, Allen is under center (which he does a minority of the time but it’s more than most other QB prospects). Second, he really sells the play fake, using his prototypical size to hide the ball from the defense. Third, he delivers a nicely timed ball to his back who is running a wheel route from the backfield. Despite all the negatives, it’s this potential that has scouts excited. I’m hopeful that Allen plays so we can see him once more heading into the NFL Draft.
Heading into the season, I predicted good things for Central Michigan and thought they would be a “spoiler” in the conference. Turns out, I had that right. CMU won close games against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, both of which were predicted to finish ahead of them in the division by Phil Steele; they even got a win over Ohio, the predicted best in the East division. CMU has two players I like: former Michigan QB Shane Morris and big play WR Corey Willis. Morris turns the ball over too much (13 INTs) and does not complete enough of his passes to be a real worry but he’s experienced and a former Michigan man so I like him. If you throw out a bad game against Boston College his stats would look better (yeah, yeah, I know I’m cherry picking). In the preseason, I compared Willis to John Brown from the Arizona Cardinals and thought his draft stock could mirror that of 2016 stat-stuffer Taywan Taylor. Unfortunately, injuries slowed Willis and limited him to just eight games. Still, those games were encouraging. He totaled 42-625-9 on the season and had four big games since returning from injury. Willis has at least one touchdown in five straight games, scoring eight of his nine touchdowns in that span. It doesn’t get much more under the radar than Willis: NFLDraftScout.com has him as the 46th ranked receiver in his class while Phil Steele had him as the 72nd ranked draft eligible receiver. I might be the only draft analyst advocating for Willis but I really am a believer and will enjoy watching him in the bowl game and at the combine. Prediction: Central Michigan

SATURDAY, DEC. 23
BIRMINGHAM BOWL, TEXAS TECH (6-6) VS. SOUTH FLORIDA (9-2), 12 P.M. (ESPN)

Texas Tech: 26th scoring offense, 11th passing offense, 96th rushing offense; 98th scoring defense, 124th passing defense, 53rd rushing defense
South Florida: 16th scoring offense, 54th passing offense, 9th rushing offense; 37th scoring defense, 58th passing defense, 23rd rushing defense

Here’s a prop bet for you: take the over on the total number of yards earned by Texas Tech and South Florida in the Birmingham Bowl. I’ll guess that combined the teams gain somewhere between 950-1,000 yards combined. This one may not feature the best football but it will be fun to watch. It’ll be long too with all the scoring so I recommend DVRing it and watching it on fast forward later in the day. Not surprisingly this is the first matchup between the two teams in their history and it was made possible by the fact that the SEC didn’t have enough teams to fulfill all of its bowl tie-ins. That isn’t to say the SEC was weak, it’s just that Georgia, Alabama and Auburn will all be playing in a New Year’s Six bowl which means less teams for the lower bowls. Texas Tech’s offense is led by junior QB Nic Shimonek and WR Keke Coutee. Shimonek is very efficient as a passer and ranks near the top of many passing categories such as completions, completion percentage and passer rating. His TD:INT ratio is 30:8 which is good too. Even though he has thrown the ball well this season, he was briefly benched for a game by coach Kliff Klingsbury. Shimonek came off the bench versus Texas in that game and led the team to a win; he’s already been confirmed as the bowl game starter. His top target, Coutee, has an 82-1,242-9 line on the season.
South Florida is powered by the legs and the arm of QB Quinton Flowers. Flowers has 31 total passing and rushing touchdowns this season and 107 during his career. It’s a shame he’s so undersized (6’0″ and 210lbs) or he’d be a fun draft prospect to evaluate; chances are he’ll still give the NFL a shot but likely after a position change. Flowers is a winner: he has led the Bulls to a 29-9 record over the last three seasons. He should notch another one here to cap off a prolific career. Prediction: South Florida

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL, ARMY (8-3) VS SAN DIEGO STATE (10-2), 3:30 P.M. (ESPN)

Army: 43rd scoring offense, 130th passing offense, 1st rushing offense; 30th scoring defense, 40th passing defense, 54th rushing defense
San Diego State: 50th scoring offense, 118th passing offense, 12th rushing offense; 15th scoring defense, 26th passing defense, 8th rushing defense

Oh San Diego State, one of my favorite teams of the year. Their 12th ranked rushing offense is paced by RB Rashaad Penny who has undoubtedly made himself a millionaire this season with his meteoric rise. In the preseason, I mentioned Penny as a special teams difference maker. In Week 3, I discussed how Penny helped the Aztecs overcome their first Power 5 opponent in Arizona State. By Week 5, the Aztecs made it into my “Games to Watch” segment with Penny as the headliner. Come Week 6, I spotlighted Penny as my top player to watch that week and had already run out of superlatives for his success. A week later, Penny was in my “Heisman Watch” segment. Sure, Penny’s meteor has fallen back to earth but he’s still a great player who deserves your attention. Penny has 2,169 total yards (most in the FBS) and 24 total TDs on the season. Those scores break down to 19 rushing, 2 receiving, 2 kick return and 1 punt return. He truly is a jack-of-all-trades and may be a top ten RB in the 2018 rookie class.
Army is led by senior QB Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw is a “quarterback” only in the sense that he takes the ball from under center each play. He passes so infrequently that Sports-Reference.com shows his rushing stats ahead of his passing stats (he went 1-1 for 20 yards against Navy). He is a very effective rusher who averages 7.5 yards per attempt, for a total of 1,566 yards and 12 TDs this season. Not surprisingly, Army has a stable of backs with 500+ yards including Darnell Woolfolk, Kell Walker and Andy Davidson. If you didn’t watch Army’s last game against Navy in the snow, you missed one heck of a game that Army pulled out late. The game against Navy is, without a doubt, the biggest game of their season but I’m sure they will get up again next week for SDSU.
Ultimately, I think the strong Aztec defense plus Penny will be too much to overcome for Army. In case this one is close, I will note that San Diego State has a good kicker in John Baron; he only went 12-15 this season because the offense converted drives into touchdowns but he can be counted on in the clutch. Prediction: San Diego State

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL, TOLEDO (11-2) VS. APPALACHIAN STATE (8-4), 7 P.M. (ESPN)

Toledo: 11th scoring offense, 20th passing offense, 26th rushing offense; 56th scoring defense, 49th passing defense, 68th rushing defense
Appalachian State: 33rd scoring offense, 72nd passing offense, 28th rushing offense; 33rd scoring defense, 45th passing defense, 43rd rushing defense

Saturday Dec. 23 is looking to be a great day of good games, finishing off with yet another high scoring affair in the Dollar General Bowl. Toledo ended the season on a three game winning streak including the MAC Championship against Akron. Toledo is led by the strength of their offense. Senior RB Terry Swanson is the standout back of the bunch (1,319 yards, 14 TDs). Swanson went for 466 yards and 3 TDs over the last three games of the season including 180-2 in the MAC Championship. Freshman RB Shakif Seymour has earned a larger role of late, especially after a five touchdown game against Bowling Green. The top target for QB Logan Woodside, more on him in a moment, is WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson is a big play guy who averages 17.5 yards per reception and also has two return touchdowns this season. The aforementioned Woodside is Toledo’s best draft prospect but he’s maybe a 7th rounder at best heading into the combine. I watched Woodside earlier in the year against Eastern Michigan and he mostly disappointed in that one. He had fantastic numbers last season (4,129 yards, 45 TDs, 69.1% completion percentage) but just about all of his stats except INTs has regressed in 2017. It’s looking more and more like Woodside will be an UDFA but who knows maybe that works out the best for him so he can choose his landing spot.
I included Appalachian State RB Jalin Moore in my Early 2018 Positional Rankings for one reason: his pass blocking will get him drafted. Per Pro Football Focus, Moore has the highest pass blocking efficiency by a running back in the FBS. It was a good thing to see Moore get 12 receptions this year (just five in his first two seasons) because if he’s going to be on the field in pass blocking situations in the NFL he better work on his receiving skills. Moore battled a foot injury this season and missed some time but when he was healthy he was very productive. He had two games over 200 yards (239 and 241) and two games over 100 yards where he also scored 2 TDs. The Mountaineers QB Taylor Lamb is a four year starter who will be playing in his last game for the team. He’s a dual threat (539 yards and 5 TDs rushing) and careful with the ball (just 6 INTs this year).
I went into researching this game thinking I would take Toledo and Woodside but I’m now leaning towards App State. They have the better defense and I have a gut feeling Lamb will show-out. Prediction: Appalachian State

SUNDAY, DEC. 24
HAWAII BOWL, FRESNO STATE (9-4) VS. HOUSTON (7-4), 8:30 P.M. (ESPN)

Fresno State: 79th scoring offense, 66th passing offense, 77th rushing offense; 9th scoring defense, 37th passing defense, 14th rushing defense
Houston: 67th scoring offense, 38th passing offense, 54th rushing offense; 39th scoring defense, 118th passing defense, 46th rushing defense

Fresno State is probably the bowl team that I have the least feel for – I can’t recall watching a single minute of their games this season before the MWC Championship. Fresno won four straight to earn that MWC Championship game berth, including a win over 23rd ranked Boise State. Lead WR KeeSean Johnson could be a longshot 2019 NFL Draft prospect if he improves his stats again in 2018. His receptions, yards, yards per reception and touchdowns have all increased year over year. In 2017 he finished with 66 receptions, 918 yards and 8 TDs. Fresno’s rush attack is led by a trio of underclassman including freshman Jordan Mims (142 attempts, 604 yards, 6 TDs), sophomore Josh Hokit (117-519-7) and freshman Ronnie Rivers (95-473-5). Mims is the go-to guy, he had 10+ carries in eight straight games before the MWC Championship game, but it’s definitely a “hot hand” situation.
The Cougars offense is not in good shape, despite their middling rankings, and clearly misses former head coach Tom Herman. They are currently on their third starting quarterback, having settled on dual threat freshman D’Erig King in late October. Since taking over, King has 6 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs. Houston has one player that you must watch: DT Ed Oliver. Oliver is just a sophomore so he’s not draft eligible but I’ll bet he’s in the conversation for a Top 10 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He’s 6’3″ and 290lbs but athletic. His stats won’t be amazing because he is often double teamed but he still managed 69 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 2017.
Total gut call but I have more faith in Fresno State’s offense after doing my research so I’ll take them and the bonus that is their strong defense. Prediction: Fresno State

TUESDAY, DEC. 26
HEART OF DALLAS BOWL, WEST VIRGINIA (7-5) VS. UTAH (6-6), 1:30 P.M. (ESPN)

West Virginia: 19th scoring offense, 12th passing offense, 72nd rushing offense; 92nd scoring defense, 101st passing defense, 105th rushing defense
Utah: 59th scoring offense, 43rd passing offense, 70th rushing offense; 42nd scoring defense, 54th passing defense, 36th rushing defense

West Virginia enters the Heart of Dallas Bowl with their 12th ranked pass offense in flux. QB Will Grier is questionable after a finger injury ended his season early. In the game and a half the Mountaineers played without Grier, backup Chris Chugunov went 24-46 for 326 yards and 1 TD. The team did lose both of those games though, one against Texas and one against Oklahoma. I covered Grier back in Week 8 but since he’s injured I won’t go into more detail here other than to say that I am lower on him than others. The must-watch offensive prospect, in my opinion, on West Virginia is QB turned WR David Sills. Sills has good height at 6’3″ and uses that size to be a dominant red zone target. Sills totaled 18 TDs on the season (enough to lead the FBS); 12 of those TDs came in the red zone. NFLDraftScout.com predicts Sills to have 4.58 speed which not elite but is good enough and subsequently has him as the 6th ranked WR in his 2019 draft class (note: that does not include other 2018 guys who come out early). WalterFootball.com has him as the 14th if he were to come out this season. I have Sills as my 10th WR for 2018 so I really like his potential. I’ll predict that coach Dana Holgorsen calls up a key trick play where Sills gets to throw the ball and remind everybody that he used to play QB.
** Utah is also dealing with an injured quarterback as Tyler Huntley is questionable for the bowl. Troy Williams, a former Washington transfer who started in 2016, has not played particularly well in relief duty this year (2 TDs, 4 INTs, 54.5% completion percentage). Senior WR Darren Carrington was unable to cement his status as an NFL Draft prospect but he’ll still get a late round look (66-918-6 this season). The Utes best shot at a win is to ride RB Zack Moss. Moss has 1,023 yards rushing, 9 rushing TDs, 28 receptions and 234 yards receiving this season. When Utah has the ball, pay attention to West Virginia S Kyzir White, brother of Bears WR Kevin White. White is a top safety prospect who has 81 tackles and 3 INTs this season.
As long as Chugunov can get the ball to Sills and target-hog Gary Jennings (94 receptions) the Mountaineers will be fine against a mediocre Utah team. Prediction: West Virginia

QUICK LANE BOWL, NORTHERN ILLINOIS (8-4) VS. DUKE (6-6), 5:15 P.M. (ESPN)

Northern Illinois: 51st scoring offense, 87th passing offense, 38th rushing offense; 26th scoring defense, 57th passing defense, 11th rushing defense
Duke: 86th scoring offense, 80th passing offense, 59th rushing offense; 25th scoring defense, 12th passing defense, 62nd rushing defense

Duke was recently in the college football headlines because head coach David Cutcliffe was offered, and declined, the Tennessee job. Considering what a sideshow that search became, I think we would all agree that was a good decision by Cutcliffe. Cutcliffe has brought relevance to a struggling Duke program (they went to four straight bowls from 2012-2015) but finished just 4-8 last season. I’m not a Duke fan and don’t follow the team closely but from afar I have to say that I like Cutcliffe and appreciate that he shunned a bigger job to continue building at Duke. Maybe one reason Cutcliffe decided to return was the opportunity to continue working with redshirt sophomore QB Daniel Jones. Jones has prototypical height at 6’5″ but needs to add weight to his 215lb frame. Of the 18 quarterbacks who were drafted since 2010 and measured at 6’5″ or taller at the combine, none weighed less than 223lbs. Per my two favorite draft sources, WalterFootball.com has him as the 15th ranked quarterback if he came out in 2018 while NFLDraftScout pegs him as the 6th best if he waits until 2020. Jones will be best served by another season or two in college because he wouldn’t get drafted today based on his production. His completion percentage is too low (55.7%) and his TD:INT is poor (12:11). Part of that could be excused by a lackluster supporting cast but a top quarterback prospect needs to transcend his team. Keep an eye on Jones to see if he improves next season.
The NIU quarterback situation is the polar opposite of the stability that Duke enjoys. Like the Houston Cougars, the Huskies are on their third starting quarterback this year, moving on from the first two due to injury and ineffectiveness. They are currently starting dual threat freshman Marcus Childers. Childers took over in October and has been productive: 20 combined passing and rushing TDs. Protecting the blindside of Childers is a mountain of a man named Max Scharping. Scharping, a junior, is 6’6″ and 312lbs. Per Pro Football Focus he is third in the nation in pass blocking efficiency by offensive tackles. According to their stat guide, Scharping has only allowed one hit and just four hurries. If Scharping comes out, I’ll bet he’s a Day Two prospect.
Neither team really won my heart here but I’ll go with NIU and their stronger scoring offense. Prediction: Northern Illinois

CACTUS BOWL, KANSAS STATE (7-5) VS. UCLA (6-6), 9 P.M. (ESPN)

Kansas State: 37th scoring offense, 99th passing offense, 42nd rushing offense; 58th scoring defense, 129th passing defense, 18th rushing defense
UCLA: 30th scoring offense, 5th passing offense, 114th rushing offense; 118th scoring defense, 39th passing defense, 129th rushing defense

Apologies to Kansas State and legendary head coach Bill Snyder but this preview is all about UCLA’s Josh Rosen because he will be the biggest topic of conversation in this one. The Rosen discussion, is dominated by one thought: will Rosen even play? One of the oft-mentioned negatives of Rosen is that he might lack the passion for the game that some players exude. I’ve heard some pundits say something to the effect of Josh not “needing” the game. I obviously don’t know Rosen personally and haven’t studied him enough to have my own opinion but it does worry me that if that is true maybe he won’t bother suiting up for this meaningless game. We saw a number of top prospects take that approach last year (Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffery) and can you really blame them? The first overall pick and millions of dollars are on the line for Rosen. I would not at all be surprised to read reports of Rosen’s shoulder injury “lingering” long enough to keep him out of the Cactus Bowl. Regardless of whether he plays or how well he plays, Rosen is my pick for the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. I have gone deep on Rosen earlier in the season so I won’t rehash everything here but long story short is that he is the most pro-ready quarterback in the class. He plays in a pro-style offense, has good size and arm strength and has been very productive in college. He’s not without his negatives (i.e. the aforementioned mentality questions, low completion percentage, some poor decisions) but he has a high floor. His ceiling may not be as high as somebody like Sam Darnold, who is younger but needs more seasoning for the NFL level, but Rosen is worthy enough of the top pick and can start from Day One.
I lied about ignoring Kansas State because there are three things I want to touch on. First, starting QB Jesse Ertz is out and has been replaced by freshman Skylar Thompson, a QB with the same size and skill set as Ertz. Second, Junior CB D.J. Reed is a difference maker on defense (43 tackles, 4 INTs, 9 passes defended) and on special teams (2 TDs, led Big 12 in punt and kickoff yards per return) when he is healthy. Unfortunately, Reed is hurt and it’s unsure if he’ll be able to play. If he does, I’ll be interested to see him vs Rosen. Third, Kansas State has an interesting OL prospect in junior Dalton Risner. Risner was the team’s starting C as a redshirt freshman and has since switched over to RT. He is ranked second in the pass block efficiency stat by PFF at the tackle position. If Risner enters the NFL Draft as a C prospect he could be a Day Two pick due to his versatility.
It’s hard to throw out praise for a team’s starting quarterback like I did and then pick against them but that’s exactly what I’m going to do. If Rosen can’t or won’t go, they could have to go to third stringer Matt Lynch because backup Devon Modster is questionable with his own injury. No thanks, let’s go Wildcats. Prediction: Kansas State

Coach Couch Week 2: UCLA v. UNLV

Intro:

Welcome to the second installment of Coach Couch: A Football Analysis from my Couch, where I offer totally biased, and totally opinionated analysis on UCLA Football.
Recap:
Since we’re a week into the football season now, I think it’s important to start off with a little recap of last week’s game against Texas A&M. So let’s go over the things I was right about, and some things I was wrong about.
The Right Stuff:
Here are couple of things I nailed on the head. Kyle Stadium sucks. Noelle Mazzone sucks. JJ “Moose Punch” Molson is a beast, UCLA scored 24 points, and basically all of “the Bad” scenario with the exception of UCLA winning. Particularly this line: “We’re going to end up with one big play at the end that decides this game.” Guess, what, we did. For those of you that need to feel some serious heart palpitations as a result of regret, anger, and an overall flood of emotion, here’s the final play, in its most annoying form.
The Wrong Stuff:
HA! You thought I was going to write about anything I did wrong. I’ll concede to this though. Theo Howard did not shine, but that’s because he wasn’t in the game. We’ll get to that later.
The 2-Minute Rant:
So, this is a new segment I’m going to try out. Could be bad things, could be good things, but it’s more properly described as word vomit.
First off, let’s talk about our fans. Guys…we get it, you want UCLA to win. Yes the game was frustrating; yes the team made some really, really bad plays. Yes, the balls looked like they were covered in Vaseline. But PLEASE, for the love of God, stop calling for Mora’s head when we lose a game. Stop acting like depressed little children when we lose a game. That was a good game. We came back from a 15 point deficit in 2 minutes of game time. We lost, on the road, in Texas, as underdogs, in overtime, and only by a botched play by yet another screw up from a PAC-12 ref. I mean honestly, when are they going to start vetting these guys?
Do PAC-12 refs have their own special type of referee school? Like the ITT Tech of referee college, where they tell you that you can earn a referee degree that is equivalent to that of other referees, and they have tons of campuses, and they actually paid one NFL referee once to say he graduated from ITT referee college? Case in point, one Ref in particular was trying to relive his college football days and spent a little too much time involved in each play of the game, up to, and including the controversial “last play”. If you happen to find a picture of who I am talking about, please include it in the comments so we can all print it out and photoshop it into ridiculous and embarrassing situations and sent them to his children, and or church congregation.
Anyway, overall, the team needs our support. And if we whine every time they lose, why are 5* athletes going to want to come to our school? Suck it up and look forward to next week. Stanford started this way last year, and they ended up with a PAC-12 Championship. And please, let me remind you of our goal this year. THE ROSE BOWL. We’re not trying to go to the National Championship (although that’d be nice). Our goal is THE ROSE BOWL. Come on, say it with me. The ROSE BOWL. Now back to you in the studio.

Coach v Coach

UCLA Bruins Awww yeah, you know what it is. UCLA’s Iron Fist Mora is looking to rev up the Bruins for yet another week against a team we should easily beat. Coach P…argh. Not sure what to put here. I feel like we abandoned any bit of momentum in the game we had once it started to look like it wasn’t working. Our throwing was pretty effective, but utilizing more short routes would have ended up being more effective overall. But what do I know, I’m not a coach, nor a sports analyst. Regardless, I liked the difference in play calling. It was refreshing to see Rosen not taking every snap in the shotgun. First game, tough position, and I bet Mr. P gets better at play calling as the season goes on.
Tom “Brick Wall” Bradley – Well, it turns out we hadn’t let the mortar set quite yet. Can we please blitz? I mean, there were so many times when our line was breaking through, but just not fast enough to catch Trevor Knight, not that he was Usain Bolt or anything. It’s moments like those that maybe a full on blitz would have yielded more picks, missed throws and less yardage, and possibly sacks. Get crazy with it Brick! I call him that for short, because we’re close friends. [editors note: we’re not actually close friends]. And now, here is a gif of how I expect Bradley to show up on the field Saturday night
UNLV Rebels Tony “The Dirty” Sanchez. This dude deserves some mad props. Even though his team only won three games last year, the Rebels have come back as a much stronger opponent. They put a pretty damn good 50 point beating on Jackson State last week, and I imagine that has to do with some great talent, and some damn good coaching. I don’t really know anything else about UNLV’s coach staff that doesn’t require a few minutes of Wikipedia research, so I’m just going to call this analysis as complete. Take aways from this section? “The Dirty” Sanchez remembers a good clobbering last year, but returns a more effective and efficient team. Expect him to bust out the nice China for when we host him on Saturday’s game.

UCLA Bruins Impact Players

Bolu Olorunfunmi:
So nobody knows how to properly pronounce his name, but, it’s got some great things in it. For starters. OLO, which is only one letter short of YOLO, which is how this guy RUN(s). Boy is watching him FUN for MI. What does that spell? YOLORUNFUNMI. I give this guy an A++ for his game on Saturday against Texas A&M, and I am going to dub him Bolu “Mollywop” Funmi. I expect we see some play time for this guy and start making him a household name.
Josh Rosen:
To be honest, I’m only going to mention him because is he plans on making Freshman mistakes like he did last week, he’s going to be a negative impact player in this game. While I respect his desire to keep the play alive continuously, please, for the love of Jesus Christo, stay calm, lead our offense, and take the sack if you need to.
Kenny Walker:
Kenny Walker caught that beautiful catch in the 3rd quarter to tie the game up. He had 6 receptions for 115 yards on Saturday. I’ll admit, I’m a grown man, and I may or may not have peed myself a little bit when he made that catch for a TD. I’m not ashamed, it’s just a reality. Kenny Walker is going to be exciting all year.
J.J. Molsen:
I told you, and I’m going to say it again, this kid rips. JJ “Moose kicker” Molsen is here to stay. That one kick that he missed wasn’t even his fault. It’s was huge yardage, and the offense set him up a little off angle. Not to mention, he had the power, just the accuracy was off by a hair.
Theo Howard:
Can he catch? Put him in, coach.

UNLV Impact Players

Johnny Stanton: This kid is a transfer from Nebraska via Junior College. I read Danny Woodhead’s inspiring letter to his 18-year old self last night. If there was anything I took away from it, it was that kids from Nebraska have nothing better to do than play football. I mean, honestly Danny, you spent time writing jersey numbers on the back of your army men? Anyway, I have a lot of respect for Nebraska, and Danny Woodhead was on my fantasy team once, so therefore, Johnny “not the island” Stanton will probably be a good QB. He threw for 217 yards on 10 for 12 passes.
Devonte Booker:
This guy sounds like he would be Blade: Vampire Slayer’s apprentice. He caught three receiving touchdowns last weekend, but only caught 4 passes total? I don’t really know, the article I was reading on him is kind of messy. Either way, this guy is going to give our DB’s a run for their money.
The Sun:
Why don’t we ever move our team to the shady side of the stadium? I get that the game is at 5pm, but the sun will still be out for another 3 hours after that. Some things just don’t make sense. I hope the Bruins are wearing sunscreen, because sweating all over your sunburns can really hurt some times.

The Site: The RoseeeeBowl

This is where we play every home game. It’s also were we better be playing our Bowl Game. I have mixed opinions on the Rose Bowl. I almost got arrested here once. Key words: Almost, and Once. They now have a clear bag policy, so remember that. Also, it should be nice to see a crowd of blue. If you like tailgating in Lot H, that’s cool, but I think the hidden gem is on the actual golf course.

Prediction Time:

“The Good”
Well, I think this one is pretty easy. Josh Rosen, fresh off a defeat and a couple of mistakes from last week takes the field ready to battle it out against an unranked, not even in our division football team. Rosen keeps a calm head, leads his team, and doesn’t let the pressure shake him. Truth is, everyone knows that Rosen likes to throw, and the only way to stop him from doing that, is to put a bunch of pressure on him. But in this game, Rosen doesn’t let that bother him. He shakes of a shitty play and moves onto the next one. He find a good rhythm, gets to practice his hand offs, and makes some really incredible throws. UCLA wins this one handedly, covering the (what is it now, 21-points?) spread, and proves that last week was just a fluke. Our defense, also seems to find something that clicks. Tom “Brick Wall” Bradley has finally had time to let the mortar set, and he is ready to stop anything. Riding his bear tractor into battle, he calls a blitz, and another blitz, and when that doesn’t work, he calls another blitz. Basically, UCLA Football is going to look like a game of NFL Blitz for the N64. We’re gunna body slam.

UCLA 54 – UNLV 9

“The Bad”
Sadly, the bad still looks good for us. UCLA Football is going to come out and be ready to fight this game. We’re pretty pissed about last week, and we’re making good plays, however, we’re letting small mistakes get the best of us. That 3rd and 3 just became a 3rd and 8. That excellent throw from Rosen? Null because of a holding call. We’re going to shoot ourselves in the foot. We also still somehow manage to not learn from last week’s mistakes. We run out of time in the huddle, improperly manage time, and overall, have a pretty messy game. However, you barely notice all of the mistakes. Why you might ask? Because UCLA is still putting on a show. We’re still connecting with our receivers, running the ball well, setting up lanes, and the defense is rocking UNLV. Ultimately though, this game needs to come down to focus. UCLA walks away with a win, covers the spread, but the mistakes from last week have not been corrected as we get ready to walk into the Cougar’s Den of BYU.

UCLA 28 – UNLV 3

“The Ugly”
I’ll keep this pretty short. This actually turns into a game. If UNLV puts this game into anywhere within reason that they can win, then we are in trouble. Not to say UNLV is a bad team (ok they are), but UCLA should be playing at a completely different caliber. That’s like comparing a 1993 Toyota Celica to a 2016 Ford Mustang – the V6 3.5 hybrid, which is both fuel efficient and powerful. They’re just not in the same league. UCLA wins, or we lose, to be honest, it doesn’t really matter. We need to at least cover the spread. Yes, it’s called high expectations, but let’s be real. This team is GOING TO THE ROSE BOWL. So we better start locking shit down and winning easy games. The truth is, if we play at a standard that we’re capable of, we should easily destroy some teams (cough cough UNLV).

UCLA doesn't cover the spread

Summary
I think UCLA takes the route of the “The Good” this week. Call me optimistic, but I think losing this early in the season is a good thing. UNLV has to deal with the result of UCLA losing a winnable game and dealing with our vengeance. I also think that the Texas A&M game puts UCLA in its correct headspace, by showing us early that we are not unbeatable, and forcing us to hone in on our skills. We had a great showing last week, despite some fan’s opinions. We lowered the amount of penalties we had, and the first quarter, we looked like a team ready to play ball. They big key to this game? Scoring a touchdown early. Once we get into the endzone and taste that blood, we’ll be racking up points without a problem.

UCLA 42 – UNLV 10

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PFF's favorite prop bets of the FBS National Championship Game Dec 28, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs the ball against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the fourth quarter in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at State Farm Stadium. College Football Prop Bets & Specials NCAA Football Betting Props There are currently no lines available for this sport. Either there are no odds open to bet on, or the sport is not in season at this time. The CFP National Championship takes place Monday with the Alabama Crimson Tide meeting the Ohio State Buckeyes for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. SportsbookWire covers the game in full with college football betting picks and predictions and below, we'll look at how to bet the National Championship between Alabama and Ohio State. Top College Football Playoff National Championship player prop bets The model is projecting Alabama quarterback Mac Jones to go well under 375.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he falls ... Happy College Football Playoff National Championship night. 10. First score of the game an Alabama TD. LINE: +140 – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line. Of course the first score might be a weird safety, or some quirky special teams or defensive touchdown, but that’s unlikely. College Football National Championship Prop Picks January 12, 2021 In the closing hour of My Guys in The Desert, hosts Danielle Alvari, Tim Murray, Matt Youmans and Vinny Magliulo take one final look at Monday night's college football National Championship game and their favorite props for the matchup. Online sportsbook Bovada has released many national championship game prop bets for you to try your hand at, including alternate spread, totals and more precise options such as the first scoring method and what the first turnover will be.. See Odds Shark’s Best NCAAF Sites. National Championship Game Prop Bets. There are two prop bets that I think are worth a stab for this game, though there ... Let’s take a look at the best player prop bets for Monday’s CFP National Championship. Justin Fields Under 309.5 passing yards (-125) Fields was awesome in the Sugar Bowl, torching Clemson for 385 passing yards and six touchdowns. College football National Championship 2020 picks against the spread and straight up. Get our free Clemson vs LSU predictions below and don’t forget we’ll have free college football picks every week of the 2020/2021 season. Prop bets are synonymous with the NFL Super Bowl every year, but there is a hefty list of which to choose from for college football’s championship game as well. Read on for the vital information, betting odds, and some prop bets to consider for the Ohio State vs Alabama title game collision.

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